NYC snowfall sees millions of dollars traded on prediction markets

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Central Park under snow, NYC, February 2010. Thick snowfall, trees all around with snow on branches.

The latest snowstorm in New York City surprisingly led to Kalshi’s largest climate-related market, in keeping with a report, however not everyone seems to be pleased with the end result. It additionally comes simply weeks after Polymarket declined to pay out on bets about whether or not the U.S. military would invade Venezuela, pointing to disputes over how the wording was interpreted.

The writer Barrons says a spokesperson instructed them the snowstorm market is the most important climate-related market the Kalshi platform has ever seen, with 17,418 merchants having traded $5.1 million available on the market as of early Monday afternoon (January 26).

The NYC snowstorm market is @Kalshi's largest ever local weather market, a spokesperson tells me, with greater than 17,000 merchants taking part and $5.3m in quantity.

One New York-local dealer I talked to obtained his edge by measuring snowfall on a parked automotive. pic.twitter.com/VP1HOFXUqr

— Nick Devor (@nickdevor_) January 26, 2026

The corporate started accepting bets on the snowfall throughout its prediction market, with a deal with inch counts ranging between two inches and two toes. Forward of the snow starting to fall, the area of New York Metropolis and New Jersey was predicted to see someplace between eight to 14 inches of snow, relying on the precise location.

The Kalshi market requested folks the query ‘Snow in New York Metropolis from Jan 24-26?’ with the end result detailed as being verified via the Nationwide Climate Service which measures snowfall in NYC at Central Park.

NYC snowfall on prediction markets targeted on Central Park

Within the feedback, although, some folks recommend it was “deceptive” as they didn’t understand it might be targeted on Central Park snow solely.

I've been buying and selling the NYC snow market on Kalshi. As of time of writing, it has $3mm quantity. Polymarket has round $550k quantity in complete. From what I can inform, they’ve the identical decision phrases (would like to be fact-checked on that).

You'd suppose that increased quantity = extra…

— SurfShopCapital (@SurfShopCapital) January 26, 2026

In a single remark, left beneath the unique market, somebody stated: “I really feel dangerous for all of the freshmen that learn the title and wager on snow in NYC. There WAS greater than 12” of snow in NYC, simply not within the one spot that issues…”

They continued to say the title ought to have included ‘in Central Park NYC’ to make it clearer.

Others, nonetheless, within the feedback part on Kalshi, have advised folks learn the foundations.

Screenshot of a Kalshi prediction market discussion showing users debating a New York City snowfall bet. Comments argue the market was misleading because it resolved based on Central Park snowfall, even though other NYC boroughs like Queens received over 12 inches of snow. — Merchants argue in Kalshi’s feedback over whether or not a NYC snowfall market was deceptive after outcomes had been based mostly solely on Central Park measurements. Credit score: Kalshi

It wasn’t simply Kalshi that allowed folks to wager on the climate occasion although, as Polymarket opened related markets too with it titled ‘What number of inches of snow in NYC this weekend? (Jan 24-26).’

Within the first line of Polymarket’s guidelines, they do state the market will resolve in keeping with the full snowfall in Central Park, New York Metropolis, in keeping with the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Additional down within the guidelines, they point out will probably be targeted on the Central Park space as soon as extra.

Featured Picture: By way of Ekahbishek on Wikimedia Commons, CC 2.0

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