Lawmakers unveil BETS OFF Act targeting prediction markets linked to government

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U.S. lawmakers Chris Murphy and Greg Casar announce BETS OFF Act targeting prediction markets on government actions at Capitol press conference.

U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday (March 17) rolled out new laws geared toward shutting down sure prediction markets that enable individuals to wager on geopolitical developments, authorities selections, and different real-world occasions.

Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar launched what they name the Banning Occasion Buying and selling on Delicate Operations and Federal Features Act, or the BETS OFF Act. Their proposal would block betting platforms from providing contracts tied to authorities actions or conditions the place insiders would possibly already know, or instantly affect the end result.

"These are basically corrupt markets. They’re rife with insider buying and selling, they usually provide extremely perverse incentives, particularly inside authorities, for presidency actors to push official decision-making in direction of their monetary pursuits." – @ChrisMurphyCT @RWW

— Suswati Basu (@suswatibasu) March 17, 2026

Murphy argued that these markets create harmful incentives and open the door to abuse by individuals with privileged info.

“These are basically corrupt markets. They’re rife with insider trading, they usually provide extremely perverse incentives, particularly inside the federal government,” Murphy stated at a press conference introducing the invoice.

If handed, the laws would restrict prediction market platforms reminiscent of Polymarket and Kalshi from itemizing bets associated to official authorities selections or occasions managed by particular people.

Lawmakers announce BETS OFF Act amid issues about insider info and struggle betting

Murphy pointed to a latest burst of betting exercise surrounding U.S. military action against Iran as a significant motive lawmakers determined to behave now.

In keeping with the senator, prediction markets noticed unusually massive wagers positioned only a day earlier than america carried out strikes towards Iran.

“There was a sequence of very particular bets that had been made… on america attacking Iran the next day,” Murphy stated. “These bets paid off to the tune of over $100,000 at a minimal for every of the people who positioned these bets.”

Murphy stated most of the accounts chargeable for the wagers had been created the identical day the bets had been positioned, elevating issues that somebody with advance data of the assault could have used the markets.

“It appears fairly clear what occurred. Folks contained in the White Home, or very near the White Home, with data of the assault that was imminent, cashed in,” he stated.

Casar echoed these issues, arguing that prediction markets may enable individuals near delicate selections, together with navy operations to revenue from them.

“We shouldn’t stay in a rustic the place somebody sitting within the State of affairs Room… may have a whole bunch of 1000’s of {dollars} driving on the choice,” Casar stated.

Casar stated roughly 150 accounts positioned uncommon wagers predicting the struggle would start the subsequent day. Of these, he claimed 109 accounts guess greater than $10,000 and 16 reportedly earned greater than $100,000. One bettor allegedly walked away with practically $500,000.

The BETS OFF Act would prohibit betting markets tied to terrorism, assassination, struggle, and official authorities actions. It might additionally bar contracts involving occasions the place a single individual controls the end result or the place insiders may fairly know the consequence earlier than the general public.

Lawmakers additionally cited different examples they take into account problematic, together with bets on which phrases a politician would possibly use in a speech, predictions about Tremendous Bowl halftime performers, or wagers on bulletins that insiders already know prematurely.

In a single case, bettors on Polymarket allegedly sent death threats to Israeli journalist Emanuel Fabian after his reporting about an Iranian missile strike affected a high-stakes betting contract. Fabian stated routine struggle protection triggered “days of harassment and loss of life threats” after gamblers demanded he change the report back to affect the market final result.

Murphy argued these sorts of markets mislead customers into believing the bets are honest.

“Gullible shoppers get conned into putting bets on markets the place the end result is knowable, the place they’re basically sure to lose,” he stated.

Prediction markets have expanded exponentially and attracted rising regulatory scrutiny. Supporters say the platforms can produce helpful forecasts by aggregating public info, whereas critics warn they create alternatives for manipulation.

Murphy stated the brand new proposal is a part of a wider push in Washington to rein in betting tied to delicate real-world occasions.

“When the market is inherently and virtually definitely rigged, that needs to be a spot the place persons are shielded from what’s… fairly often outright fraud,” he stated.

Featured picture: Senator Chris Murphy by way of YouTube

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